The view of foreign trade should always initially be approached from two perspectives: imports and exports. A good example of this is the Netherlands. Our “small” neighbor ranks second only to China in terms of exports from Germany. The Dutch import more goods from Germany than the USA. On the other hand, it is the French and the USA that export the most products to Germany. Only then comes the next step: balancing.
It is likely thanks to platforms like Temu that China leads significantly in exports to Germany. However, in imports, the Middle Kingdom slips to fifth place with €90 billion. In total, this results in a trade balance with a total volume of €246 billion.
Let us look at the leader of our economic exports: in 2024, this was the USA. After all, the United States exported goods worth €161.4 billion, but on the other hand, only imported German goods worth €91.5 billion. The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in January 2025, including on goods from the EU, could severely impact the German economy. At least Germany recorded a solid trade surplus of €70 billion with the USA in 2024—one of the thorns in Donald Trump’s side.
France, as well as Poland, brought trade surpluses to the German economy. Poland ranking fifth in total volume might cause some surprise, as many would have surely bet on Japan, Korea, or Italy. Italy managed to rank sixth in 2024, just one place ahead of Austria. The tech and automotive giants Japan and Korea ranked 16th and 22nd respectively (source: destatis).
Trump’s Tariffs Could Boost EU Business
The Stuttgarter Zeitung analyzed in an article dated March 25, 2025, what consequences U.S. tariff policies could have for Germany. The Swabians presented both bad and good news. In direct relation to the USA, a drop in exports to €59 billion by 2035 is predicted. Experts cited in the article from Deloitte had forecasted annual growth of 1.8% per year in autumn 2024 but are now expecting an annual decline of 3.2% per year for 2025.
On the other hand, Trump managed within a few weeks what European politicians have struggled with for years: EU partner countries have suddenly moved closer together. This will also have consequences for domestic and German economies. According to Deloitte, German exports to the ten largest EU partner states are expected to grow annually by 2.5%, compared to the forecast of 1.8% per year made in autumn 2024. Projected to 2035, this means an eightfold increase in German exports compared to 2025.
Future Prospects Require Reforms
London analysts see a sleeping giant in the EU single market for the German economy. However, bureaucratic reforms must take effect for this potential to be awakened. This means standardization, for example in packaging disposal, reporting obligations, or simply taxation. If EU bureaucracy becomes active here, Trump’s shot could backfire massively.
