Recent data on smoking habits in Germany suggests that smokers are, in a figurative sense, becoming a dying breed. Smoking is increasingly on the decline, and the numbers clearly reflect this trend.
The proportion of smokers in the population has dropped to 16.2%, with daily smokers projected to account for only 12.8% by 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the decline among younger generations. In 2024, 83% of 12- to 17-year-olds had never smoked, while this figure stood at 47% for 18- to 25-year-olds. Comparatively, in 2001, the non-smoking rate among 12- to 17-year-olds was 72.5%.
Smoking, however, no longer refers solely to traditional cigarettes. It also includes pipes, cigars, and cigarillos, as well as, in recent years, e-cigarettes and, since 2024, officially marijuana. In 2024, e-cigarettes and marijuana have gained greater interest in terms of smoking habits.
E-cigarettes are often marketed as being less harmful than traditional tobacco, but research shows this claim is more rooted in marketing myths than in scientific evidence. The chemical substances inhaled are far from harmless to health.
With the legalization of marijuana, consumption is expected to increase, though the market may soon reach saturation.
What are the reasons behind the decline in smoking?
One undeniable factor is the growing emphasis on “mindfulness” regarding physical and mental health, particularly among younger generations. Smoking is increasingly incompatible with lifestyles centered on healthy vegan diets, smoothies, and organic farming. While this may seem odd at first, it aligns with a broader worldview. Rising costs of nicotine consumption might also play a role, although this is likely secondary. Historically, the continuous increase in cigarette prices has never caused a drastic drop in smoker numbers.
What are the future implications of the decline in smoking?
Germany is not alone in witnessing a decrease in smokers. Philip Morris, the world’s largest tobacco company, is pivoting towards a smoke-free future, developing products that are at least less harmful than cigarettes under the slogan “Delivering a Smoke-free Future.” For the future, this means a reorientation of the traditional tobacco industry. Products that no one buys anymore simply won’t be manufactured – it is as simple as that.
The decline in tobacco consumption also has broader positive effects. In 2023, the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) estimated the direct costs of smoking at €30.32 billion. These direct costs include treatment, care, and rehabilitation. Additionally, indirect costs amounting to around €67 billion were incurred, including long-term care, disability pensions, and economic losses due to premature deaths. A declining number of smokers will reduce these healthcare expenses, offering long-term relief to health insurance funds. However, this comes with the trade-off of increased life expectancy, which leads to higher expenditures for elderly care.