The Curse of the New Year's Resolution

Or Why Starting Piano in January Might Be the Worst Time to Begin

An analysis of 1.1 million users shows: Those who start in May are statistically much more likely to stick with it.

Restart at the Push of a Button: What Drives Us at the Turn of the Year

The fact that we make so many resolutions right on time for the new year is no coincidence, but deeply rooted in our psychology. Research refers to these as "temporal landmarks," which trigger the so-called "Fresh Start Effect." Whether New Year's, your own birthday, or the beginning of a new month: These fixed points act like emotional reset buttons.

They allow us a psychological trick: We simply check off past failures with our "old self" and start into the future with the liberating feeling of a blank slate.

This behavioral pattern is also documented by a 2015 study published by the U.S. National Institutes of Health: People begin life-changing habits significantly more often on days that feel like the beginning of a "new era." This is a universal phenomenon that can be observed across national borders.

Germans in particular prove to be "world champions of good intentions." At the start of 2026, a proud 36% of German citizens stated they had made New Year's resolutions. This puts them well ahead of Americans (31%) and the British (19%).

In addition to classics like fitness and nutrition, the focus is often on acquiring new creative skills, such as learning a musical instrument.

However, there's a drastic discrepancy between the symbolic act of starting and the harsh reality of persevering. While these temporal milestones are excellent for getting the first stone rolling, they say little about long-term success.

To investigate this, the piano learning app Skoove together with the Berlin data studio DataPulse Research conducted a comprehensive behavioral study.

Based on registration data from over 1.1 million users between 2021 and 2024, the analysis offers an exclusive insight into the reality of long-term learning success.

Looking at this "Fresh Start Effect" through actual user behavior rather than just surveys and self-assessments reveals a fundamental paradox: Periods of highest initial motivation often correlate with the lowest retention rates.

In other words: The "fresh start" in January could statistically be the worst time to ensure that you actually learn an instrument long-term.

Between Optimism and Endurance

The 'Fresh Start Effect' explains why we start in the first place, but it's no guarantee of long-term perseverance. To better understand this phenomenon, researchers examined at what point motivation actually transitions into a lasting habit and in which months the chances of long-term practice are highest.

To make this lasting engagement measurable, the study draws on an extensive dataset of 1,137,446 anonymized users who signed up to learn piano over a four-year period (2021 to 2024).

In a first step, the researchers analyzed when registration numbers peaked. The data confirms expectations: Almost a quarter of all annual new registrations occur in the short window between December and January alone.

Timing Beats New Year's Zeal: Why the Starting Point Is More Crucial Than the Initial Motivation Boost

In the next step, researchers examined activity over a six-month period. For this, participants were divided into groups (cohorts) based on their starting month. This methodology allows for precise comparison: How much does the timing of the first strike influence the chance that a beginner will still be sitting at the piano regularly after half a year?

The data reveals a marked gap between the initial rush and actual endurance. While registration numbers literally explode at the turn of the year, this exact phase marks the low point for long-term consistency.

The heatmap below visualizes this "sticking with it" over six months. The result is clear: The highest endurance is found in the second quarter of the year. The "most loyal" piano students are those who start in May, closely followed by the June and April cohorts.

Impulse vs. Intention: Why Less Pressure Leads to More Success

This gap suggests that the "Fresh Start" impulse can actually stand in the way of long-term learning success. The January peak is often fueled by wishful thinking that lacks foundation in everyday life. Those who simply put piano playing on a long list of vague resolutions risk a "resolution jam" that often collapses in February.

In contrast are learners who start in late spring. It seems likely that they make a conscious decision at a time when social pressure has subsided and mental capacities for a real routine are more available.

This illustrates: For a resolution to become a firm habit, inner consistency counts more than a symbolic calendar date. The data substantiate this trend:

• New Year's cohorts show the least endurance. Learners who start in December have a retention rate that is 28% below the annual average.
• January starters perform only marginally better at 21% below average. This confirms: The typical "New Year's energy" is an extremely volatile fuel that quickly dissipates.
• In contrast, the second quarter forms a clear "peak of consistency". Those who ignore the seasonal hustle in January and instead start in April, May, or June stay much more stable on track: Retention rates here are between 18% and 23% above the overall average.
• The May cohort is the most successful: These learners reach the milestone of the first half year with a 23% higher probability than average, leaving especially the December starters far behind.

The Expiration Date of Good Intentions?

The study's results act like a mirror for a much larger cultural phenomenon: the collective failure of New Year's resolutions. International studies also substantiate that motivation is usually short-lived.

Data from Pew Research from 2024 showed that by mid-January 41% of respondents in the US had already given up their resolutions completely or partially. A similar YouGov survey in the UK in 2017 found that 22% of participants had already failed at their own goals after just six days in the new year.

Long-term surveys also illustrate how difficult it is to really stick to resolutions. According to the YouGov study from 2017, only 27% of British people managed to pursue their intentions throughout the entire year.

An overarching pattern emerges: Piano playing is no exception here. Whether health, finances, or music – the "Fresh Start" often provides the spark for beginning, but the data suggests it alone is rarely enough for the necessary endurance to the goal.

Sticking With It Instead of Giving Up: How to Overcome the "Beginner's Wall"

Starting in January certainly doesn't automatically mean the end for the new hobby. Rather, it highlights a classic challenge: the difficult transition from a symbolic milestone to a real everyday routine. The hurdle of establishing a new habit is a universal theme that goes far beyond piano playing.

Fender CEO Andy Mooney already pointed out in a 2019 interview: While about 50% of all the company's guitars are sold to beginners, about 90% of these people hang up the instrument again within the first 12 months.

This shows: The hurdle to stick with it is extremely high, especially at the beginning. Often the technical difficulties of the initial learning phase overtake the original motivation high before the habit is solidified. However, this "Beginner's Wall" can be overcome.

Those who really want to follow through with their 2026 resolutions should therefore rely less on willpower and more on a smart system. Here are three strategies that make the switch from "wanting" to "doing" work:

• Choose your "favorite hits": Motivation is not a permanent state. To keep the fun from falling by the wayside, you should play exactly what you really love. Learning your favorite song or a familiar soundtrack releases enough dopamine to survive even the dry practice phases.
• The "Goldilocks rule" for goals: The fastest path to frustration leads through tasks that are too difficult. Set small milestone goals. The exercises should feel just right: challenging enough so it doesn't get boring, but easy enough not to despair.
• Persistence beats intensity: A huge "practice marathon" on the weekend brings less than you think. Much more effective are short, crisp units, about 15 minutes, but regularly. The brain learns through consistency, not through overwhelm.

Whether we really master a new skill depends less on the "Fresh Start" moment and more on the conscious step away from mere intention toward firm habit.

For all learners, completely independent of the starting month: The decisive indicator for long-term success is not the day they begin. It's the framework or system they build to stick with it even when the initial New Year's euphoria has inevitably fizzled out.