The traffic transition is a central challenge of the 21st century, especially for a car-centric country like Germany. Since the new data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority was published on April 19, 2024, our study “Auto Nation in Transition 2024” examines the latest data on the stock and new registrations of electric cars in Germany. This time we particularly want to highlight what has changed compared to the previous year.

The key findings of the study:

• Unreachable Goals?: The federal government has set a goal of having 15 million electric cars on Germany’s roads by 2030. Our forecast predicts around 4.4 million electric cars on German roads by December 2030.
• Early Stages of the Mobility Transition: Despite a stock (as of January 1, 2024) of 1,408,681 electric cars in Germany, which corresponds to 2.86% of the total registrations, the federal government’s ambitious goal of 15 million electric cars by 2030 remains a massive challenge. The share of electric cars is growing, but not even by one percent.
• Transition Stalled?: New registrations of electric cars are lagging behind, accounting for only 11.7% of new registrations this year so far. Last year, at this time (January-March 2023), it was 14.2%, and by the end of the year, it was 18.42% of new registrations.
• The East Lags Behind: A regional disparity is emerging, as the East, with only 1.55% of electric cars (1.13% last year), lags significantly behind the West, with 3.10% of electric cars (2.24% last year).
• Bavaria Dominates the Registration District Rankings: Bavaria shines with eight districts among the top 15 in the registration statistics and also accounts for two of the three fastest-growing districts in terms of electric car registrations. Both are improvements from the previous year!
• Electric Cars as an Indicator of Prosperity: The availability and spread of electric cars strongly correlate with the average income of the federal states – the higher the income, the higher the number of electric cars.
• Berlin, Our E-Capital:Berlin displaces Munich from the throne and takes first place in the absolute number of electric cars.

Future at Risk? Germany’s Goal by 2030

By 2030, 15 million electric cars are expected to be on Germany’s roads. As of March 2024, nearly a tenth of this goal, or 1.5 million, has been achieved. This shows that there is still a long way to go. And as our forecast has shown, the goal will be missed by around 10.6 million electric cars. If trends in Germany do not fundamentally change, the projection of current figures indicates around 4.4 million electric cars by January 2030. This means not even a third of the goal.
Two factors that are likely to play a role here could be the discontinued subsidies for electric cars. In September of last year, the subsidy for electric company cars expired, and in December, the federal government stopped the subsidy for private electric cars.

Think Globally, Act Locally: The Regional Rise of Electric Cars

The switch to electromobility is not happening uniformly – regional differences shape the picture. In addition to major cities such as Munich, Hamburg, and Berlin, German car cities (Böblingen (Mercedes), Ingolstadt (Audi), Wolfsburg (VW), and Munich (BMW)) and registration districts of car rental companies (Euskirchen, Wiesbaden) stand out as regions with the highest electric car density. Hamburg, Hesse, and Baden-Württemberg continue to have the highest shares of all federal states, as they did last year, while Bavaria alone accounts for 8 of the top 15 registration districts. The new federal states occupy the last 5 places in the ranking in terms of electric car stock. All registration districts as a table can be found here.

Further down the page, you will find links to maps and tables for all individual federal states.

VW and Tesla Dominate the German Market for Electric Cars

The German automotive industry is on the brink of a new era, as evidenced by the recent figures on new registrations of electric cars.

Our Conclusion

Our analysis provides a detailed picture of electromobility in Germany, revealing significant regional disparities, with the East of the country lagging behind in the adoption of electric cars. Despite subsidies, electric cars have emerged as a product of prosperity, mainly appealing to affluent regions. Commercial holders play a crucial role in promoting electric vehicles and significantly contribute to growth. Market leaders such as VW and Tesla continue to dominate the German electric car market, while Chinese manufacturers currently play little to no role.

What is also becoming apparent is that the pace of the transition is slowing down. The forecast clearly shows that it is not happening fast enough to achieve the federal government's goal.

Sources and Methodology

The graphics were created using Datawrapper, based on the “Auto Nation in Transition” study from 2023.

For the forecast, monthly data since January 2022 was collected and processed. Formatting was mainly cleaned up, and decommissioning was added to the new registrations to obtain clear figures. With the help of our data team, a forecast was then calculated based on linear regression, which was then also visualized with Datawrapper.

The forecast chart was developed using a statistical model based on the analysis of historical data and identified seasonal trends. The methodology requires the input of at least two years of monthly data on electric vehicle registrations into a regression model, which performed the analysis using the least squares technique. This model anticipates future electric vehicle registrations, assuming that key influencing factors such as consumer acceptance, economic incentives, and the pace of innovation within the electric vehicle industry remain constant.

Federal Motor Transport Authority:
New registrations of motor vehicles with alternative drives, monthly results (FZ 28)
https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Produktkatalog/produkte/Fahrzeuge/fz28/fz28_gentab.html?nn=3514348
Motor vehicles and motor vehicle trailers by registration districts (FZ 1)
https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Produktkatalog/produkte/Fahrzeuge/fz1_b_uebersicht.html?nn=3514348
New registrations of passenger cars by brand and model series (FZ 10)
https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Produktkatalog/produkte/Fahrzeuge/fz10/fz10_gentab.html?nn=3514348

Stepstone:
Salary Report 2024
https://www.stepstone.de/e-recruiting/gehalt-deutschland/

Links

• Baden-Württemberg
• Bavaria
• Brandenburg and Berlin
• Hesse
• Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
• Lower Saxony
• Northern Germany (Bremen, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Lower Saxony, and Schleswig-Holstein)
• North Rhine-Westphalia
• Rhineland-Palatinate
• Saarland
• Saxony
• Saxony-Anhalt
• Schleswig-Holstein
• Thuringia